Oscar Nominations Predictions
The time has come. Tomorrow morning, Academy Award-nominated actress Jennifer Lawrence and Academy president Tom Sherak will announce the Oscar nominees in the major categories. Over the past several months, I’ve observed the Director’s Guild Awards, the Producers’ Guild Award, and countless blogs and other pre-Oscar ceremonies and awards to determine who will be nominated tomorrow. Here are my predictions for who will hear their name called tomorrow in the eight major categories:
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Thomas McCarthy, “Win Win”
Will Reiser, “50/50″
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, “Bridesmaids”
Possible: Diablo Cody, “Young Adult”
Should be nominated: J.J. Abrams, “Super 8″
Allen is a lock; he recently won the Golden Globe Award for Best Screenplay (where only five screenplays where nominated). “The Artist” is a lock too, since it’s the frontrunner for Best Picture. I’m glad to see that writer/director Thomas McCarthy is getting some Oscar love for his great screenplay for “Win Win” (now if only Paul Giamatti and/or Amy Ryan could get nominated). Will Reiser is going to be nominated for “50/50″, which many people say blends comedy and drama seamlessly. I’m going to watch it once it comes out on DVD. And Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo will get a nom for their incredibly funny and brutally honest “Bridesmaids” script. Diablo Cody, a previous winner of this category for writing “Juno”, could get nominated for “Young Adult”, but I don’t quite see that happening. J.J. Abrams deserves a nomination for “Super 8″, which was one of the best films of 2011.
Best Adapted Screenplay
John Logan, “Hugo”
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, “The Descendants”
Tate Taylor, “The Help”
Steve Zaillian, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, “Moneyball”
Possible/Should be nominated: George Clooney and Grant Heslov, “The Ides of March”
As much as I like “Hugo”, I can’t honestly say that one of the movie’s strong points was its script. But it will probably be nominated for Adapted Screenplay because it’s a Best Picture contender. Ditto for Taylor. Payne, Faxon and Rash are locks for their great “Descendants” script. Steve Zaillian will be nominated twice for “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” and co-writing the phenomenal “Moneyball” script, which I hope wins. I’m hoping that I’m wrong and George Clooney and Grant Heslov will get a nomination over Logan or Taylor for their great adaption of “Farragut North”.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”
Possible: Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
Should be nominated: Bryce Dallas Howard, “The Help”
Bejo, Chastain and Spencer are locks. McCarthy will get a nomination for her “brilliant” comedic performance. (Notice the sarcasm. Do I like her performance in “Bridesmaids”? Yes. Is it Oscar-worthy? No.) And Woodley should earn a nomination for her terrific performance as George Clooney’s rebellious eldest daughter in “The Descendants”. But McTeer could get nominated, especially if the Academy is smart enough to move Bejo into the much harder Best Actress race where she deserves to be. I’m upset that Dallas Howard’s perfectly-calibrated work in “The Help” isn’t getting the awards attention it deserves. No disrespect to Spencer and Chastain, but Howard had a much trickier role in that film and she pulled it off.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
Albert Brooks, “Drive”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Patton Oswalt, “Young Adult”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Possible: Andy Serkis, “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” and Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
Should be nominated: George Clooney, “The Ides of March” and Brad Pitt, “The Tree of Life”
Branagh’s a lock, even though I don’t know why he’s in this category in the first place. There isn’t a lot of buzz over his performance. Anyway, Brooks and Plummer are locks as well. In fact, it’s a two-man race between those two performance. Hill (yes—-that Jonah Hill) will be nominated for his strong, subtle work in “Moneyball”. And I’m going to go out on a limb and say that stand-up comedian Patton Oswalt gets a nomination for “Young Adult”. I know that it sounds stupid, but I feel it in my gut that he will surprise everyone and get a nom. Of course, Serkis could make history by becoming the first actor to be nominated for a motion-capture performance. And Nolte could get a nomination for playing the role of a drunken, regretful father in “Warrior”. Who knows? It’s up in the air.
Best Actress
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”
Possible: Charlize Theron, “Young Adult” and Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Should be nominated: Kristen Wiig, “Bridesmaids”
Davis, Streep and Williams are locks. Mara has been getting a lot of raves and nominations for her work as the antisocial computer hacker Lisbeth Salander, so I expect her to get in. And Swinton got both a Screen Actors Guild and a Golden Globes nomination. So…….I guess she gets in too. A lot of people think that Glenn Close will get in, but I don’t think so. “Albert Nobbs” was received poorly by critics and audiences both. I don’t think she’ll be nominated. Theron could shake things up by getting a surprise nom for her role as an obnoxious young-adult writer in “Young Adult”. But who really should be getting some attention is Kristen Wiig for her funny and surprisingly vulnerable performance in “Bridesmaids”.
Best Actor
George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “J.Edgar”
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
Possible: Gary Oldman, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” and Ryan Gosling, “Drive”
Should be nominated: Paul Giamatti, “Win Win”
Yeah, these nominees are pretty much set in stone. But Oldman could replace Fassbender. But I don’t think so.
Best Director
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
David Fincher, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Possible: None
Should be nominated: J.J. Abrams, “Super 8″
This category is also set in stone.
Best Picture
“Bridesmaids”
“Drive”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Moneyball”
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
“The Help”
“The Tree of Life”
Possible: “War Horse” and “Young Adult”
Should be nominated: “Rango” and “Super 8″
Now things get tricky. The Academy could nominate anywhere from 5 to 10 films for Best Picture. In order for a film to qualify for Best Picture, it has to earn a certain percentage (1%) of first-place votes. This benefits films like “Bridesmaids”, “Drive” and “The Tree of Life”. Especially “Drive” and “The Tree of Life”, which are very polarizing films that have devoted fanbases that may give the films enough first-place votes to get Best Picture nominations. “Hugo”, “Midnight”, “Moneyball”, “Artist” and “Descendants” are all locks. I’m putting “Dragon Tattoo” in there because it’s received some major nominations/awards in the last couple of weeks. I’m iffy about “The Help”, but since it’s mainly an actor’s film, I can see the acting branch of the Academy (which makes up the majority of the voters) getting this film a Best Picture nom. Some pundits are predicting that “War Horse” will earn a trip to the big prize, but I don’t think so.
So there it is. I’m looking forward to seeing how accurate I am tomorrow morning @ 8:30. The nominations announcement will be streaming live on Oscars.org. Check back here tomorrow for analysis.
