Oscar Predictions
Ladies and gentlemen, the Oscar race has officially begun. The Independent Spirit Award nominees have been announced and the first critics group (The New York Film Critics Circle) has announced their picks for the best film and performances of the year. I figure now’s a good time as any to announce my picks for who I think will be nominated for Oscar’s highest honors.
Best Supporting Actress
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Possible: Jessica Chastain, The Help or The Tree of Life
Spencer and Woodley are definite locks. Spencer is the frontrunner for her breakthrough turn in The Help, and Woodley has earned tons of acclaimed for her performance as George Clooney’s on-screen daughter. The other three, in my opinion, are not so secure. McCarthy is a complete shot in the dark, but I think that the Academy will show that they “appreciate” comedy by giving McCarthy a nom. McTeer is said to be very good in Albert Nobbs, but until I see it for myself, I’m not entirely sure. Same goes with Redgrave. I easily put the very deserving Jessica Chastain in this category for her fantastic work in The Help or The Tree of Life. Hopefully she’ll get some buzz as Oscar season continues.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Albert Brooks, Drive
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Possible: Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Plummer is the only lock. He won tons of critical acclaim for his performance as a gay father in Beginners and he will be nominated. The other four spots, really, are up for grabs. I’m going to put Branagh here, even though some reviewers/Oscar predictors don’t think that he’ll make the cut. Same goes for Jim Broadbent. His co-star Meryl Streep will undeniably be nominated for Best Actress, but Broadbent’s a little iffy. But he’ll make it. Albert Brooks just won the Best Supporting Actor prize at the New York Film Critics Circle; if he gets more critics’ choice like that, he’ll definitely be in. And comedian Patton Oswalt should get in for Jason Reitman’s Young Adult. Don’t be surprised if Jonah Hill finds his way in the top five for his great performance in Moneyball.
Best Actress
Viola Davis, The Help
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Possible: Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Davis, Olsen, Streep and Williams are locks. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Theron’s the only shaker contender. My guess is that Rooney Mara may shake things up with her performance in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, but if she doesn’t, expect these names to be announce on Oscar day.
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Possible: Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt are locks; Clooney’s performance in The Descendants is said to be the best of his career; Dujardin is winning raves for his work in the silent The Artist; and Pitt is quite possibly the frontrunner to win. Fassbender and Oldman are on the bubble. I would put Leonardo DiCaprio in one of the five spots, but J. Edgar has not received the critical or commercial acclaim that people expected it to be. Edgar will win a couple of technical awards, but I don’t think that DiCaprio – who’s received tons of acclaim despite the film’s lukewarm reception – will be able to garner a nomination.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse
Young Adult
Possible: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
This is where things get interesting. They could be anywhere from 5 to 10 films that could be nominated for Best Picture. I’m just going to assume that there will 10 films nominated for Best Picture. The Artist has won numerous awards in film festivals. It’s a lock. So is The Descendants. Nobody has seen Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, but due to its subject matter (9/11) and pedigree (Sandra Bullock, Tom Hanks, excellent source material), it’s also a definite lock. No other film in the Harry Potter franchise has been nominated for Best Picture, but I think that the final installment of this very popular franchise will be the one that makes it to the big dance. I’m hesitant to put The Help on the list, not because it’s a bad movie, but because I personally don’t think it’s quite good enough to be a serious contender. But other critics seem to dig it, so I think that it’s going to be on the list of the top ten films of the year. Hugo‘s a lock; critics and audiences are both hailing it as one of director Martin Scorsese’s best films. The Ides of March won’t be a very serious contender, but it’s pretty darn good, and it will make the cut. Moneyball‘s a definite lock for Best Picture and numerous other awards. War Horse is a lock; again, nobody has seen it, but it’s Steven Spielberg directing a war movie. ‘Nuff said. Young Adult looks like a definite contender as well: it’s directed by Jason Reitman and written by Oscar-winner Diablo Cody. The last time these two collaborated, they made the movie Juno, which was nominated for Best Picture in a year where only five films were nominated. Expect the same love for Young Adult.
